Stop trading on hype.
Put every setup on trial.
Burden of Proof grades the setups, indicators, and rules you already use against the actual research — with citations and honest caveats — so you trade what holds up and skip what doesn't. 24 setups graded. 23 earn their place. One famous one doesn't.
No signals. No "can't-lose" system. No fake P&L. Just what the evidence supports — and how to apply it.
One of the most empirically validated intraday setups — with a direct peer-reviewed test behind it.
Supporting
- Peer-reviewed opening-range test (Holmberg et al., 2013)
- Crabel's large OHLC study (1990)
- U-shaped volume: the open carries weight
⚠️ Caveats
- Transaction costs can erode the edge
- Pair with a Range/Trend filter
- 10:00 isn't magic — the edge is the range
Most trading education sells certainty it never earned.
Six modules. Every concept graded.
Each verdict arrives in three layers: a 🔬 evidence verdict (citations & caveats), a 📊 high-fidelity visual, and a 📋 printable template to log it.
Risk Management
Position sizing, mechanical stops, the 9-question risk interrogation, sizing down.
Technical Setups
AM Session Range, VWAP, Volume Profile/POC, market internals, confluence scoring.
Timeframe Analysis
Multi-timeframe alignment and reading trend strength without fooling yourself.
Options Mastery
Expirations & MOPEX, 0DTE, the JPM collar, dealer gamma, the full risk interrogation.
Macro Context
Sector rotation and the global session handoff that shapes the US open.
Commitment & Resources
Trader psychology, the daily prep workflow, and the tools that actually matter.
One full verdict — the same format as all 24.
One of the most empirically validated intraday setups — with a direct peer-reviewed test behind it.
Supporting
- Holmberg, Lönnbark & Lundström (2013) tested opening-range-breakout strategies directly and found returns significantly above a fair game.
- Toby Crabel (1990) documented the opening-range edge in a large OHLC study.
⚠️ Caveats — things to watch for
- Transaction costs can erode the edge — keep costs low.
- Pair it with a Range-vs-Trend filter and volume confirmation.
Read the full verdict & practical takeaway
Volume is U-shaped across the session — the open is one of the two busiest, most volatile windows, so the levels set early carry real weight. The 10:00 mark isn't magic; the edge lives in the range itself, confirmed by internals ($TICK / TRIN / A-D). Classify the day Range-vs-Trend, then let that classification govern how you trade it.
Practical takeaway: trade the breakout only when the range is resolved and internals agree; demand ≥3 confluence factors; and size for the day's true range. The setup is strong — the discipline around it is what makes it pay.
Your edge is the receipts.
Anyone can assert a setup works. This playbook shows the burden of proof behind each one — and is honest when the proof isn't there. Graded against academic finance, behavioral research, and CME/CBOE documentation.
Real citations
Holmberg (2013), Kelly (1956), Klein's premortem (HBR 2007), Kahneman & Tversky, Moskowitz (2012) — named, not vibes.
Honest caveats
Every verdict lists what can break it. Caveats sharpen a method instead of hiding its risk.
One that fails
Of 24 graded, the one famous "edge" that doesn't survive the data is flagged ❌ — with what to use instead.
The Playbook — plus the toolkit to actually run it.
The Annotated Playbook
24 evidence verdicts across 6 modules, high-fidelity visuals, 6 printable templates, and the one-page Verdict Summary card.
The Companion Workbook New
Decision drills, real verified market days (no fake P&L), and reflection prompts — organized along your trading day.
The Edge Tracker New
A live Google Sheet that grades you — expectancy, win rate, R-multiples, and rule-adherence over time.
Setup Replay library New
Real, dated market days (Volmageddon, the 2024 carry unwind, the 2025 tariff reversal) annotated with what the framework flagged.
Tilt & Psychology protocols New
Pre-committed circuit breakers for revenge trading, FOMO, and size-creep after a loss.
30-Day onboarding path New
A day-by-day plan that turns the binder into a logged, measurable habit in about 20 minutes a day.
The printable Field Card
The whole daily routine on one page — print it, tape it next to your monitor, run it top to bottom.
A complete, evidence-graded trading system — one price, lifetime access, free updates.
- All 6 modules — 24 setups graded with citations & caveats
- Companion Workbook, Edge Tracker, Setup Replay & Tilt protocols
- 30-Day onboarding path + 6 printable templates
- The Verdict Summary card & the printable Field Card
- Free updates whenever new research changes a verdict
This is for you if…
- You're done buying signals and want a framework you actually understand.
- You trade (or want to trade) intraday equities, futures, or SPX options.
- You want to know why a setup works — and when it doesn't.
It's not for you if…
- You want guaranteed wins or a "can't-lose" system. Those don't exist.
- You want someone to tell you what to buy each morning.
- You won't do the work of logging and reviewing your own trades.
Straight answers.
How is it delivered?
Instantly after checkout: the full Annotated Playbook (self-contained HTML + print-ready PDF), the companion workbook, the Edge Tracker, and the printable templates & Field Card.
Is this financial advice?
No. It's educational only — a framework for understanding and evaluating trading concepts. It is not advice, signals, or a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.
What makes it different from other courses?
Every concept is graded against published research and institutional practice, with the citations and the caveats shown. No hype, no fabricated results — and we tell you which popular "edge" doesn't survive the data.
Do I need prior options experience?
No. The risk and technical modules stand on their own; the options module builds from expirations up to institutional flow, with plain-language explanations and visuals.
Refunds?
14-day money-back guarantee — if it's not for you, reply to your receipt for a full refund, no questions asked.
Trade what the evidence supports.
Stop paying for certainty no one can earn. Get the framework, the receipts, and the toolkit — for $79.
Get the Playbook now